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Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existing imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.
Pierre BLANCHET, Didier BOROWSKI, Tristan PERRIER, Valentine AINOUZ, Mickael BELLAÏCHE, Noah FUNDERBURK
Caught in the struggle between Beijing and Washington, can Hong Kong pull through the hardship without special trade status? Is Trump’s announcement symbolic or destructive for the territory? Will the Hong Kong dollar peg fall apart? We review these questions one by one in this analysis.
Joevin TEO, Claire HUANG
At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.
As part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control. Although appealing, the implementation and exit risks of such a policy counterbalance the benefits, particularly in the Eurozone. Moreover, the impact on financial markets could be significant since chained risk-free assets could temporarily leave risky assets unsettled.
Pierre BLANCHET, Didier BOROWSKI, Paresh UPADHYAYA, Annalisa USARDI