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05.01.2021 - Investment Talks

A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

The deal: the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods, but trade will be affected by new non-tariff barriers such as customs checks and compliance procedures. The deal is lighter concerning trade in services, and in most services sectors providers will need to seek approval on a case-by-case basis with national authorities.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Tristan PERRIER

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10.02.2020 - Investment Talks

Brexit still weighs on GBP, but the situation on rates and equity could normalise

Now that the United Kingdom is officially out of the EU, a new phase has opened up, during which UK officials will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU to avoid a ‘Brexit cliff edge’ at the end of 2020. The available time span is short, but an agreement is possible on either a trade deal, another extension or some mixture of the two. The negotiations should be simplified now the UK is able to rely on a solid parliamentary majority, while on the EU side there can no longer be any hope that the UK will remain in the EU.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER, Jacques KELLER

Image Brexit

Image Brexit

26.09.2019 - Investment Talks

Brexit: extension of the deadline is likely, but the final outcome remains uncertain

Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline). This week, the UK Supreme Court judged “unlawful” the advice to susped the legislature given by Boris Johnson to the Queen. These events strengthen our view that another extension of the Brexit deadline is the most likely scenario.

Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER

2017.11.06-BOE raise rates

2017.11.06-BOE raise rates

06.11.2017 - Investment Talks

The Bank of England raises rates: Bearish for the pound

The latest data indicate that the market is only slightly short GBP and we think that this view is too optimistic.

Tristan PERRIER, Bastien DRUT, Francesco SANDRINI

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