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Working paper

Working paper

22.02.2021 - Working Paper

Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening main concerns and themes of discussion among board members.

Roberta FORTES, Theo LE GUENEDAL

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

09.02.2021 - ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor - February 2021

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

Mickael BELLAÏCHE

Fixed Income and Credit Research Strategist

slider thematic 2

slider thematic 2

02.02.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

Supply vs demand of EMU EGB in 2021

Euro area sovereign debt issuance vs. ECB purchase dynamics look favourable in 2021. On the supply side, net issuance should decrease vs 2020, thanks to lower aggregated numbers of budget deficits, incoming support from EU funds, and for some countries, the use of increased cash accounts and higher bond redemptions. On the demand side, following December PEPP increase ECB potential purchases look more than adequate to cover for new debt and to provide as well a cushion for eventual additional funding needs.

Sergio BERTONCINI

Senior Fixed Income Research Strategist

slider thematic EURO

slider thematic EURO

12.01.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

Is the euro’s rise a sign of greater resilience?

The complexity and fragility of European institutions have contributed to maintaining a specific political risk premium on European assets, including the euro. But institutions were ultimately strengthened when negotiators agreed in July to launch the New Generation EU package. The euro’s recent appreciation may be an early sign of decline in this “risk premium”. Foreign investors may therefore want to rebalance their portfolios in favour of Eurozone assets, which could push the euro higher. Should the euroappreciate too fast, the ECB would not stay on the side-lines.

Didier BOROWSKI, Tristan PERRIER

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

08.01.2021 - ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor - January 2021

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

Mickael BELLAÏCHE

Fixed Income and Credit Research Strategist

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

22.12.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - January 2021

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not going to reverse completely, and the old normal will not return as it used to be.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

15.12.2020 - ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor - December 2020

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

Mickael BELLAÏCHE

Fixed Income and Credit Research Strategist

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

26.11.2020 - ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor - November 2020

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

Mickael BELLAÏCHE

Fixed Income and Credit Research Strategist

Slider

Slider

04.11.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Bonds that are not really binding

Should the €2,800 billion in sovereign bonds or the equivalent* that are on the European Central Bank’s balance sheet be treated just like any other bonds? This question, which has come up regularly over the past several months, is far from being of mere academic interest. In fact, it is symptomatic of a wish to forgive or even cancel a portion of the public debt being raised to cope with the Covid-19 crisis. But, rather than simply ignoring it, a more standard solution for the financial markets would be to regard such debt as virtual for the moment and to exclude it temporarily from public debt ratios.

Pierre BLANCHET

Head of Investment Intelligence

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