/ Research Center

03.03.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

Q4 earnings season: an impressive resilience that supports our pro-cyclical views

Given the context, Q4 2020 corporate earnings proved resilient. The regions least impacted by the pandemic, such as EM (+25%) and Japan (+20%), experienced notable increases. In the rest of the world, where the pandemic was more virulent, the US still managed to post a positive gain (+4%) while Europe was more affected (-20%). However, even in the most affected regions, the results were far better than expected, with the most significant progress coming from cyclical sectors.

Ibra WANE, Debora DELBÓ

01.12.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Q3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side

Q4 visibility has shrunk as new lockdown put at risk the recovery. EPS rebound should resume in 2021 given the base effect, the ramp-up of stimulus and a potential easing of containment measures alongside the progress made to curb the pandemic.

Debora DELBÓ

EM Macro Strategist

03.09.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

An earnings season better than expected but the valuation issue has not yet been resolved…

There was a substantial decline in Q2 earnings but they turned out to be better than expected; their decline being ultimately less pronounced than during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, whereas the current recession is much more severe. This surprising resilience is due in large part to sector aspects. Financial stocks have generally proved more resilient than during the GFC. Furthermore, the Healthcare and Technology sectors have emerged remarkably unscathed. The other side of the coin is that, without these last two sectors, the decline in earnings would have been much more pronounced. Given the revisions made and the achievements in H1, barring a new general lockdown episode, most of the consensus adjustment seems to be behind us. However, the valuation debate - excessive or not - is still far from being resolved. The duration of the crisis will be the key parameter in responding to this question.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Research Strategist

27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic

At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Research Strategist

09.03.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

US and European corporate earnings: after four quarters of stagnation, what is the outlook for 2020?

Fourth quarter 2019 earnings season confirmed the flat trend of the past 12 months. Hardly had 2019 ended than all eyes turned to 2020. For several months now, the earnings growth consensus for 2020 looked too optimistic. The spreading of coronavirus has only made us more cautious. The epidemic will certainly have a big impact on the first quarter of 2020 but some catching-up can be expected in the following quarters. In the short term the market should remain nervous. In the longer term a cautious optimism should eventually prevail.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Research Strategist

2018.11 - Cross Asset - 2019 Outlook SPECIAL ISSUE

15.11.2018 - Monthly Cross Asset

EQUITY DEVELOPED MARKETS - Sustainability of earnings under watch in a tactical year

Economic growth has hit its peak and the abundance of liquidity is now set to diminish.

Amundi Research & Investment Insights Unit

22.10.2018 - Thematic Paper

Corporate earnings in 2019: A fading momentum is in store!

After two years of strong earnings momentum, EPS growth is expected to decline considerably from 2019.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Research Strategist

19.06.2017 - Video

Lessons learned from the Q1 2017 earnings season

As the earnings season comes to a close, the time has come to report back on what we have found. With double-digit earnings growth in all the developed regions and substantial revisions to EPS, the season came out largely as promised. Between now and the end of the year, delivering surprises will be more difficult. Against this backdrop, the eurozone, where the recovery continues and where the bases for making comparisons are favourable, should offer strong opportunities.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Research Strategist

08.06.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

Lessons learned from the Q1 2017 earnings season

As the earnings season comes to a close, the time has come to report back on what we have found. With double-digit earnings growth in all the developed regions and substantial revisions to EPS, the season came out largely as promised. Between now and the end of the year, delivering surprises will be more difficult. Against this backdrop, the eurozone, where the recovery continues and where the bases for making comparisons are favourable, should offer strong opportunities.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Research Strategist

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Q4 earnings season: an impressive resilience that supports our pro-cyclical views

Q3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side

An earnings season better than expected but the valuation issue has not yet been resolved…

In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic

US and European corporate earnings: after four quarters of stagnation, what is the outlook for 2020?

EQUITY DEVELOPED MARKETS - Sustainability of earnings under watch in a tactical year

Corporate earnings in 2019: A fading momentum is in store!

Lessons learned from the Q1 2017 earnings season

Lessons learned from the Q1 2017 earnings season

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