/ Research Center

22.02.2021 - Working Paper

Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening main concerns and themes of discussion among board members.

Roberta FORTES, Theo LE GUENEDAL

02.02.2021 - Monthly Cross Asset

New money and maybe new powers too: Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming

While it is still too early to see a full launch in a large country, the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) theme is likely to grow in importance in 2021. Over the recent period, central banks have accelerated their studies and tests in this domain. As an instrument for helping economies adapt to digitalisation, CBDCs are also intended to bolster a state’s monetary sovereignty in the face of new challenges. However, their implementation raises complex issues, including those concerning their coexistence and interaction with bank deposits. While not yet viewed as serving a primary role as a new instrument of monetary policy, CBDC could nevertheless offer new possibilities in this area.

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

15.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Italy: ECB's umbrella to protect bond market, despite uncertain political situation

Political situation: On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now. In our view, the most likely scenarios are: Prime Minister Giuseppe Contecould seek to win a confidence vote,with support from parties both inside and outside the ruling majority and also unaffiliated lawmakers (Gruppo Misto);Conte could step down, triggering a new round of talksthat could eventually lead to a new administration, headed by Conte himself or another Prime Minister, with support from the same alliance; or a caretaker administration could be appointed to manage the government until the next election.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

17.12.2020 - Podcast

Blue Conversation - The "Day After" series - Geopolitics: what’s next for Europe?

In light of the current pandemic, Europe is progressively strengthening its geopolitical role on certain topics like climate change.

15.12.2020 - Expert Talk

The day after #13 - How will Central Banks impact the equity markets in the post-Covid world?

Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against deflationary threats, at the risk of losing some of their independence. The resulting low level of real interest rates boosts risk premiums, supports equities over bonds, and leads to growth stocks being overvalued vs. value stocks. Reducing this excess will be achieved by a rebound in value stocks, which will notably benefit from the steepening of the yield curve in the recovery phase. However, as interest rates will remain low and disruption is now part of our daily reality, it is likely that growth stocks will eventually surprise upwards again in this cycle. Several risks could disrupt this optimistic reading of the impact of central banks on equities: central bankers’ willingness will be tested at the first signs of inflation. Their communication will have to be particularly pointed. A premature about-face on fiscal accommodation by some governments would also raise doubts in the markets. Finally, a failure of stimulus and reflationary policies remains possible; the low interest rate environment is part of the solution, but is also a symptom.

Eric MIJOT

Head of DM Strategy Research

23.11.2020 - Market Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook - Market rotations in an uneven recovery

Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis growth levels will be long and uncertain. Against this backdrop, investors should be ready to play rotations in their portfolios, favouring cyclical themes but also keeping a strong focus on quality.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

12.06.2020 - Podcast

Blue Research - The "Day After" series #5 - New frontiers for Central Banks

Central Banks (CBs) are by nature more flexible than governments. Thus, they have been the most proactive in this crisis, reintroducing large-scale asset-purchase programmes financed by money creation (QE policies).

02.06.2020 - Expert Talk

The day after #5 - New Frontiers for Central Banks

Central Banks (CBs) are by nature more flexible than governments. Thus, they have been the most proactive in this crisis, reintroducing large-scale asset-purchase programmes financed by money creation (QE policies).

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Global Views

22.04.2020 - Insights Paper

Revisiting the global high yield outlook in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that on most occasions investors have enjoyed positive market returns just one year after the peak. Three years past such a peak, market returns have proven positive in all six occurrences since 2000.

Kenneth J. MONAGHAN, Andrew FELTUS, Matt SHULKIN, Sergio BERTONCINI, Marina COHEN, Colm D’ROSARIO

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