SUMMARY Risk factorsThe table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios. Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions Macro and Market forecasts |
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January 2019 |
Janvier 2019 |
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The table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not marked based). It also develops the possible market impacts.
This section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios.
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Central scenario (75% probability): global growth slows gradually but surely.
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Downside risk scenario (20% probability): a marked trade-war-driven economic slowdown, a geopolitical crisis or a sudden repricing of risk premiums. |
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Upside risk scenario (5% probability): a pick-up in global growth in 2019:
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AMERICAS |
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RISK FACTORS |
UNITED STATES |
Mixed signals may increase
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EUROPE |
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EUROZONE |
The recovery continues in spite of disappointing figures and rising political risks
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UNITED KINGDOM
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Lots of uncertainty in the run-up to Brexit
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ASIA |
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JAPAN |
Generous fiscal policy should limit downside risk in economic growth
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CHINA |
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ASIA (ex JP & CH) |
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LATAM |
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EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) |
Russia: we forecast 1.7% YoY growth for 2018 and slightly lower for 2019
South Africa: exit of recession but no miracle
Turkey: we expect double-digit inflation and recession in 2019
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