Insights papers / Publications / Research Center

05.03.2020 - Insights Paper

Fixed Income: Zero rates do not mean zero returns

As we enter the 2020s, a look back over the previous decade provides a key take-away for investors: a zero-rate environment does not lead to zero performance for bond investors. Last year was a clear example as bond markets delivered strong performances with almost – if not above – double-digit returns across the board. Looking back over the past five years, annualised returns across different bond markets were also positive. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate USD-Hedged index delivered 8.7% in 2019 and an average of 3.5% over the past five years.

Eric BRARD

Head of Fixed Income

21.02.2020 - Insights Paper

Global high yield outlook: Be confident, but not complacent

Last year was a strong year for global bond markets, which were supported by the accommodative stance of the main central banks and strong investor demand. US, European and EM high yield (HY) bonds all returned more than 14% swapped into US dollars. The performance was led by the higher-quality segments of the market, such as BB-rated bonds, as well as the strong performance of CCC bonds in Europe. This was due to the search for yield across credit products, helped by positive risk sentiment.

Kenneth J. MONAGHAN, Andrew FELTUS, Matt SHULKIN, Marina COHEN, Sergio BERTONCINI

17.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020

2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Christine TODD, Sergio BERTONCINI, Noah FUNDERBURK, Marco PIRONDINI, Eric MIJOT, Annalisa USARDI, Paresh UPADHYAYA

08.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Time for a flight to cyclical value in European equity

When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value offers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Andreas WOSOL, Eric MIJOT, Alexandre DRABOWICZ

16.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Fixed income: Back to core - Charts and Views

Build a robust 'core' and diversify income sources

Eric BRARD, Claudia BERTINO, Laura FIOROT

09.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Screen the Euro fixed income market in the era of three ‘lows’

As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.

Hervé BOIRAL, Sergio BERTONCINI, Francesca PANELLI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Eric BRARD, Gilles DAUPHINE'

04.11.2019 - Insights Paper

High Yield: deep diving needed due to a more uncertain outlook

Global growth has been slowing since 2018, due to a combination of factors, including trade wars - with consequently slower global trade - past US Fed tightening, and rising geopolitical risks. This slowdown has become more pronounced in the last couple of quarters, especially in the most open economies, such as Europe and some EM, while the US economy has remained relatively more resilient despite losing momentum.

Kenneth J. MONAGHAN, Andrew FELTUS, Sergio BERTONCINI, Francesca PANELLI

29.10.2019 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - A tug of war between weaker growth and looser policies

Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

05.08.2019 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Finding a balance between easing central banks and an uncertain scenario

The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets.

Alessia BERARDI, Didier BOROWSKI, Claudia BERTINO, Debora DELBÓ, Ujjwal DHINGRA, Colm D’ROSARIO, Laura FIOROT, Karine HERVE, Patrice LEMONNIER, Giovanni LICCARDO, Sergei STRIGO, Yerlan SYZDYKOV

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