Insights papers / Publications / Research Center

10.07.2020 - Insights Paper

Time to play a cyclical recovery in European equity

Cyclical conditions are turning more positive for Europe. Easing geopolitical risk and the prospect of massive fiscal resources (national and EU-wide) and monetary support could support a recovery in 2021. The improved sentiment could benefit European assets, equities in particular, that have been a laggard due to the pandemic. This could lead to a catch up of EU equities in relative terms vs other markets.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

17.06.2020 - Insights Paper

Covid-19: short-term pain, long-term opportunities for European commercial real estate

The Covid-19 crisis now appears to be deeper and more widespread than initially estimated by financial markets, and it is placing a huge strain on the global economy. In this new and evolving context, real estate is likely to share in the economic pain in the short run, but could prove resilient in the longer term given its defensive features, including its ability to dampen volatility and bring diversification to portfolios.

Pedro Antonio ARIAS

Global Head of Real & Alternative Assets

02.06.2020 - Insights Paper

Multi Asset: a solid total portfolio approach for a complex world

An increasing number of institutional investors have adopted a total portfolio approach (TPA) as a response to the weaknesses of more traditional strategic asset allocation (SAA)-based methodologies. We believe the current crisis will reinforce this trend, as it is probably marking a paradigm shift in financial markets. This shift could be as important as the change in US monetary policy brought in by Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker at the beginning of the 1980s, which led to a long period of disinflation, lower interest rates and high asset returns.

Eric TAZE-BERNARD, Matteo GERMANO

19.05.2020 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However, for those experienced in financial markets, shocks are nothing new, particularly within EM.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

28.04.2020 - Insights Paper

Covid-19 will redesign sector opportunities amid gradual normalisation and focus on earnings

The spread of coronavirus in Europe and the United States triggered a worldwide stock market crash in March, followed by a partial rebound. Many questions - such as the length of the pandemic and the extent of the consequent recession - remain unanswered. We outline three scenarios to analyse the situation. In a rosy scenario, a U-shaped recovery could begin in Q3, whereas in our central scenario (50% probability), a U-shaped recovery would have a lower and a longer bottom, and a recovery would not occur until Q4. In a risk scenario, the pattern would be L-shaped and the initial stages would be very weak. According to our analysis of three different scenarios of potential index returns for US (S&P 500) and European equities (Eurostoxx 50), each index level would be 2,450 and 2,550, respectively, in a bearish scenario, 2,780 and 3,100 in a central case, and 3,000 and 3,500 in an optimistic situation.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Eric MIJOT, Ibra WANE, Luc MOUZON

22.04.2020 - Insights Paper

Revisiting the global high yield outlook in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that on most occasions investors have enjoyed positive market returns just one year after the peak. Three years past such a peak, market returns have proven positive in all six occurrences since 2000.

Kenneth J. MONAGHAN, Andrew FELTUS, Matt SHULKIN, Sergio BERTONCINI, Marina COHEN, Colm D’ROSARIO

05.03.2020 - Insights Paper

Fixed Income: Zero rates do not mean zero returns

As we enter the 2020s, a look back over the previous decade provides a key take-away for investors: a zero-rate environment does not lead to zero performance for bond investors. Last year was a clear example as bond markets delivered strong performances with almost – if not above – double-digit returns across the board. Looking back over the past five years, annualised returns across different bond markets were also positive. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate USD-Hedged index delivered 8.7% in 2019 and an average of 3.5% over the past five years.

Eric BRARD

Head of Fixed Income

21.02.2020 - Insights Paper

Global high yield outlook: Be confident, but not complacent

Last year was a strong year for global bond markets, which were supported by the accommodative stance of the main central banks and strong investor demand. US, European and EM high yield (HY) bonds all returned more than 14% swapped into US dollars. The performance was led by the higher-quality segments of the market, such as BB-rated bonds, as well as the strong performance of CCC bonds in Europe. This was due to the search for yield across credit products, helped by positive risk sentiment.

Kenneth J. MONAGHAN, Andrew FELTUS, Matt SHULKIN, Marina COHEN, Sergio BERTONCINI

17.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020

2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average.

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Christine TODD, Sergio BERTONCINI, Noah FUNDERBURK, Marco PIRONDINI, Eric MIJOT, Annalisa USARDI, Paresh UPADHYAYA

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