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Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

22.12.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - January 2021

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not going to reverse completely, and the old normal will not return as it used to be.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

25.11.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - December 2020

As we approach year-end, markets can count on two pieces of news to propel some optimism. The first comes from the US, where the Biden victory, without a real Blue Wave, is seen by markets as the best possible outcome.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

28.10.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - November 2020

Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing. The ability of the virus cycle, which is the most critical of the three cycles, to affect the other two is now lower vs the beginning of the year.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

30.09.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - October 2020

Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month. The relative calm in credit and US Treasuries reassures that the readjustment is mainly due to investor repositioning, and is not driven by financial market stress.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

02.09.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - September 2020

The appetite for risk assets has remained strong over the summer lull. This summer season has seen both the confirmation of existing themes and the emergence of new ones. On the former, the decoupling between the real economy and financial markets has proved persistent. Another confirmed trend is that the virus is not over: the back-to-school test in September will be key

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

29.07.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - August 2020

As we enter the summer, conflicting forces in major equity markets have led to a period of temporary equilibrium between fear (risk of second wave, low bond yields, high gold prices) and greed (equities rallying as a result of economies reopening).

Vincent MORTIER, Pascal BLANQUE

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

22.06.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - July 2020

Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

25.05.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - June 2020

The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are far from being out of the woods and investors should stay alert as current market levels are still pricing in a ‘too rosy too soon’ endgame. The race between the three cycles will continue.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

28.04.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - May 2020

After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course. The most important will be the duel between liquidity and solvency in which the focal point that could shift power from one side to the other is the pandemic’s evolution. How long it will last is the key variable that will determine the shape of the recovery, which now appears likely to be U-shaped, with a long bottom phase and the slow recovery.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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