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The EUR/USD parity unusually more sensitive to the long-term rate spread than to the short-term rate spread

Whereas the EUR/USD parity has historically been more sensitive to the 2y. rate spread between Germany and the USD than the 10y. rate spread, the contrary is true since the beginning of the year. The 2y. rate spread between the US and Germany has been widening for some time as the Fed pursues its fed funds tightening cycle while it will take a long time before the ECB starts normalizing its rate policy. On the contrary, the 10y. rate spread has narrowed this year as growth perspectives improved in Europe while they remained broadly stable in the US. In the 12 coming months, we expect the long-term rate spread to tighten and the EUR/USD to appreciate slightly.