In her Tuesday 17 January speech, after six months of calculated discretion, Britain's Prime Minister went public with major indications regarding her government's strategy on Brexit and the United Kingdom's future economic relations with the EU. She said that Britain's goals will be the following:
Theresa May also warned Europeans against any desire to "punish the UK", asserting that "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain," and that the UK could, in such a case, leverage its taxation and regulation levels to im-prove its competitiveness. Announcing the choice of a "hard Brexit" (clean break with the single market), at least in terms of the initial British negotiating stance, undeniably provides a much expected clarification, against a backdrop where many observers were wondering until recently whether, by dint of a few mutual concessions, it might be possible to maintain a quasi status quo (if not to cancel the Brexit process altogether). The road to an agreement will be no less riddled with major obstacles, and made even trickier by the uncertain political environment:
Once the UK invokes Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (by late March, according to May), the ball will be in the Europeans’ court, as they will have to state their own initial position (a task that will not be made easier by the ongoing electoral cam-paign in France and Germany). No matter how the negotiations start, however, we should expect to see the Brexit question stay open – rather than resolved – for quite some time. |
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UK Composite PMI index
Tristan PERRIER
Global Views Analyst



Theresa May’s losing gamble makes Brexit even more complicated
The British Conservative Party loses its parliamentary majority in the 8 June elections.
Tristan PERRIER
Global Views Analyst