SUMMARY Risk factorsThe table below presents risk factors with probabilities assigned. It also develops the most credible market impacts. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios. Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions Macro and Market forecasts |
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The table below presents risk factors with probabilities assigned. It also develops the most credible market impacts.
This section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios.
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AMERICAS |
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RISK FACTORS |
UNITED STATES |
Economy set to expand above potential after Q1 temporary weakness
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EUROPE |
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EUROZONE
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The recovery continues with a lot of remaining potential
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UNITED KINGDOM
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Growth being slowed by uncertainty over Brexit
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ASIA |
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JAPAN |
Historical long-running economic expansion has farther to go
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CHINA |
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ASIA (ex JP & CH) |
India: moderating recovery since February 2018
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LATAM |
Brazil: subdued inflation leaves room for further easing
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EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) |
Russia: we are forecasting growth of 1.7% yoy for 2018-2019
South Africa: we are forecasting growth of 2% yoy in 2018
Turkey: we are forecasting a slowdown in growth to 4.3% in 2018
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