+1 Added to my documents.
Please be aware your selection is temporary depending on your cookies policy.
Remove this selection here

HY default rates: 2016 review and 2017 outlook


The essential

2017 is likely to see no material changes in the European default rate outlook, which is expected to remain stable at current levels – low by historical standards – over the next quarters, as they were in 2016. At the same time, 2017 should be a positive year for US default rates, as, after peaking at close to 6% very soon they are expected to fall below 4% by next December.


According to our regressions, based on topdown factors, the US "mini-cycle", which is almost completely commodity-driven, is coming to an end, and bankruptcies likely to fall back below their long-term averages.

CROSS ASSET (Download)

February 2017


Février 2017


The Article


BERTONCINI Sergio , Head of Rates and FX Research
Send by e-mail
HY default rates: 2016 review and 2017 outlook
Was this article helpful?YES
Thank you for your participation.
0 user(s) have answered Yes.