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25.09.2020 - Investment Talks

US presidential election: how it will impact US economy and financial markets

US presidential election outcome: Joe Biden has enjoyed a remarkably stable lead in the national polls this year. Currently, he is leading President Trump by 7.6%, according to our poll of polls, down from a peak of 10.4% in June. However, we believe the race is much closer, at around 50/50, with a small Biden edge. The outcome remains uncertain for different reasons.

Didier BOROWSKI, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

US President impeachment

US President impeachment

11.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Trump impeachment is likely, but impact on financial markets would be short-lived

The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

28.11.2018 - Discussion Paper

Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts?

A few days before the important meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it is important to have a clear view on the trade dispute between the two countries and on the potential impacts of a trade war.

Philippe ITHURBIDE

Senior Economic Advisor

Didier Borowski

Didier Borowski

20.07.2018 - Expert Talk

Uncertainty over tariff barriers will drag down global trade, but is not expected to endanger global growth

Tensions on trade have gone up a notch: Donald Trump explicitly threatens China and Europe with higher tariffs on more products.

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Global Views

Didier Borowski

Didier Borowski

03.07.2018 - Expert Talk

The risk of a global trade war may impact GDP growth well before the war begins

Donald Trump has recently threatened to raise taxes on USD 200 bn of imports from China.

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Global Views

Ibra Wane

Ibra Wane

12.03.2018 - Expert Talk

From one threat to the next

"The markets corrected abruptly in early February. The initial reason was worry over wage acceleration and its side effects on the Fed and long-term rates. The decline was also exacerbated by volatility redemptions."

Ibra WANE

Equity Strategy

Bastien Drut

Bastien Drut

26.01.2018 - Expert Talk

Strong Euro or weak dollar?

"The least we can say is that the movements on the foreign exchange markets have been a topic of discussion in recent days."

Bastien DRUT

Senior Strategist at CPR AM

2017-07-08-Article-5

2017-07-08-Article-5

24.07.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

Equity markets: watch out for the swinging doors!

As long as US 10-year yields remain contained between 2% and 3% and corporate profits improve, the equities cycle can continue. But this is not without danger. A rebound in long yields, currently at the bottom end of the range, could weaken the US technology sector but would favour Eurozone equities, which we continue to prefer.

Eric MIJOT

Head of Equity Strategy, Deputy Head of Strategy Research

2017-06-The position of the United States

2017-06-The position of the United States

08.06.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

The position of the United States in the credit cycle calls for caution

One of Trump’s top ambitions was to bring economic growth back above 3% over the long term. However, it looks like the United States’ position in the credit cycle (record corporate debt and significant household use of consumer credit) will thwart these plans.

Bastien Drut & Valentine Ainouz

Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi

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