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Slider ECB QE MONITOR

Slider ECB QE MONITOR

08.07.2020 - ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor - June 2020

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015.

Mickael BELLAÏCHE

Fixed Income Strategist

Thematic - Cross Asset

Thematic - Cross Asset

24.06.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Thematics Views - July 2020

Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existing imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.

Pierre BLANCHET, Didier BOROWSKI, Tristan PERRIER, Valentine AINOUZ, Mickael BELLAÏCHE, Noah FUNDERBURK

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Slider

19.05.2020 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However, for those experienced in financial markets, shocks are nothing new, particularly within EM.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

Slider-1280x400

Slider-1280x400

30.04.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years

The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.

Annalisa USARDI, Federico CESARINI, Lorenzo PORTELLI

Thematic - Cross Asset

Thematic - Cross Asset

30.04.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Thematics Views - May 2020

Over the last few weeks, significant stabilisation plans have been announced across advanced economies and in addition true stimulus plans are now under consideration. Recent empirical studies show that fiscal multipliers could be much larger in the current depressed context than during normal times. We believe this could boost the recovery path of corporate dividends going forward, in Europe in particular.

Didier BOROWSKI, Pierre BLANCHET, Alessia BERARDI, Delphine GEORGES

Vignette Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

Vignette Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

03.03.2020 - Expert Talk

Turkey: Towards a new boom and bust cycle?

Q4-2019 GDP figurewas released at6% yoy, higher than in Q3 (0.9%yoy): The main driver of this boom was private consumption that grew at 6.8% yoy and that was fueled by a huge expansion of credit to consumers, lower interest rates and a 15% rise in minimum wage.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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24.02.2020 - Expert Talk

South Africa Inflation

South African inflation came out higher in January: 4.5% yoy compared to 4% in December but is in the middle of the inflation target (3-6%) of the South African Central Bank (SARB). This acceleration in inflation is mainly explained by a sharp rise in transport prices linked to base effects of fuel prices (+ 13.7% in January against 2.4% the previous month).

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

IMG Turkey 600x400

IMG Turkey 600x400

10.02.2020 - Expert Talk

Turkey: inflation and monetary policy

The Governor of the CBRT debriefed last week on the first inflation report of the year.

Karine HERVE

Emerging Markets Senior Economist

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Slider

05.02.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Investment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed

While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle. Exceptional features of this cycle are lower growth due to trade war escalation, unprecedented low interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy and a fairly resilient labour market due to the strong domestic sector resilience. Notwithstanding these specificities, the 2020 is still compatible with a late cycle phase; but the most likely scenario for the end of 2021 is the transition into a correction phase

Annalisa USARDI, Lorenzo PORTELLI

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