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Vignette

Vignette

16.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Fixed income: Back to core - Charts and Views

Build a robust 'core' and diversify income sources

Eric BRARD, Claudia BERTINO, Laura FIOROT

Sergio Bertoncini

Sergio Bertoncini

15.11.2019 - Expert Talk

ECB QE2 starts on a strong foot with a tilt to the private sector

ECB QE2 started off on a strong foot, according to data released on Monday regarding the very first week of purchases.

Sergio BERTONCINI

Head of Rates & FX Research

Slider

Slider

06.11.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

A Brexit deal: probably, but not just yet

Risks of a no-deal Brexit have receded materially over the past few weeks, implying that the Bank of England is now more likely to keep its monetary policy on hold, in a wait-and-see mode over the next year. UK nominal yields have already removed most of the no-deal risk, having repriced up by almost 30bps from their October lows, and are seen moving more in line with the global trend in nominal rates going forward.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Tristan PERRIER, Silvia DI SILVIO

Slider-Riskbank

Slider-Riskbank

29.10.2019 - Expert Talk

Riksbank to take interest rates back to zero by end of 2019 – Norges Bank on wait-and-see mode

The Riksbank and Norges Bank both held their monetary policy meetings this week.

Silvia DI SILVIO

Fixed Income and FX Strategy

Slider Cross Asset

Slider Cross Asset

04.10.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Central banks have confirmed the shift to a much more accommodative stance

In their September meetings, both the ECB and Fed confirmed their easing mode. The ECB delivered a full monetary policy package (pre-announced in previous months), combining conventional and unconventional tools, together with the introduction of new measures aimed at reducing the sideeffects of negative rates. The FOMC delivered its second rate cut and kept the easing bias while refraining from giving clues on forward guidance, on the back of the still supportive domestic economic picture and the mixed views emerging from the dots. For the first time, therefore, the Fed hinted at resuming the organic growth of its balance sheet: the objective will be to consistently calibrate reserves to the new level of rates, in order to keep optimal abundant liquidity levels, so as not to provide a further stimulus to the economy. In this piece, we focus on these very latest developments and on the monetary policy outlook.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Valentine AINOUZ

Vignette 600*400 - FED

Vignette 600*400 - FED

24.09.2019 - Investment Talks

The Fed cuts rate, but the market expects more

The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.

Christine TODD, Timothy ROWE, Jon DUENSING

FED and ECB - impactful and significant package

FED and ECB - impactful and significant package

27.08.2019 - Expert Talk

FED and ECB, bridging from a “mid-cycle adjustment” to an “impactful and significant” package.

The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI

Valentine AINOUZ 2

Valentine AINOUZ 2

25.07.2019 - Expert Talk

The Fed and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accommodative monetary policy support growth?

The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation

Valentine AINOUZ

Fixed Income and Credit Strategist

2019.06.25 - TP -Turkey inflation

2019.06.25 - TP -Turkey inflation

25.06.2019 - Thematic Paper

Turkey: inflation, exchange rate’s pass-through and monetary policy

Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

Karine HERVE

PhD, Senior Economist

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