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15.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Italy: ECB's umbrella to protect bond market, despite uncertain political situation

Political situation: On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now. In our view, the most likely scenarios are: Prime Minister Giuseppe Contecould seek to win a confidence vote,with support from parties both inside and outside the ruling majority and also unaffiliated lawmakers (Gruppo Misto);Conte could step down, triggering a new round of talksthat could eventually lead to a new administration, headed by Conte himself or another Prime Minister, with support from the same alliance; or a caretaker administration could be appointed to manage the government until the next election.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

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20.05.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Cosimo MARASCIULO, Annalisa USARDI

Thematic - Cross Asset

Thematic - Cross Asset

09.03.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Thematics Views - March 2020

From unemployment and inflation to climate change and social inequality, central banks (CB) are on the frontlines. In the context of the ECB’s and the Federal Reserve’s strategic reviews there are now open debates about their new tools, targets and mandates. But a more profound change in central banks’ behaviour should also be discussed, regarding recession aversion, fiscal dependence and markets interaction.

Didier BOROWSKI, Pierre BLANCHET, Annalisa USARDI, Valentine AINOUZ

Image Italy

Image Italy

18.10.2019 - Thematic Paper

Italy: few ambitions from the new budget framework

On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

AC vignette menu

AC vignette menu

25.09.2019 - Amundi Conversation

2019.09.25 - Brexit: analysis of a UK drama

Sir. Simon Fraser, Former Permanent Secretary at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office, and Amundi’s experts will share their insights on the current unique UK state of affairs regarding Brexit (outcomes & political/economic/financial implications).

Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Laurent CROSNIER, Tristan PERRIER, Simon FRASER

AC vignette menu

AC vignette menu

18.09.2019 - Amundi Conversation

2019.09.16 - A New Italian Government: What's next?

As a new Five Stars / PD Italian government coalition was just sworn in, what is to be expected? Enrico Letta, Italian Prime Minister from 2013 to 2014 and Amundi's experts will share their insights.

Jean-Jacques BARBERIS, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI

Image Slider Italian Gov

Image Slider Italian Gov

18.09.2019 - Investment Talks

View on Italy: beyond the short term

The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government:The new pro- European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances at risk. However, the available room for manoeuvre is narrow.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Annalisa USARDI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

Italian Politics Slider

Italian Politics Slider

21.08.2019 - Investment Talks

Italian Politics take centre stage

Political crisis and possible scenarios: The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Didier BOROWSKI, Matteo GERMANO, Lorenzo PORTELLI, Annalisa USARDI

Cross Asset

Cross Asset

04.07.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Italy: a long and winding road

Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year. Weak growth prospects are making it more difficult to comply with deficit and debt targets, although some savings may come from lower spending. In any case, the 2020 budget is the most challenging test for the government.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Annalisa USARDI

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