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12.11.2020 - Investment Talks

France outlook

In Q3 France posted a major surprise, with its 18.2% QoQ rise in GDP beating both consensus and our expectations, and leaving the French economy only about 4.0% below pre-Covid levels. But with the second wave and the new lockdown taking a toll on activity and sentiment, we now expect a new contraction of 3.3% QoQ in Q4. This will be followed by a slow and uneven recovery, which will reach full traction only from Q2 2021, when we assume restrictions will be fully lifted. In the meantime, a ‘stop and go’ process may take place, making the recovery path bumpier and more uncertain.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

Vignette - Thematic - France Germany

Vignette - Thematic - France Germany

02.10.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Is France still on track to reduce its competitiveness gap vs. Germany?

Germany clearly outperformed France on most macroeconomic metrics in the last two decades. Yet France has implemented many supply-side reforms since 2014. Despite the larger damage taken by France from the current Covid crisis, the lagged effect of these reforms can still help reduce the competitiveness gap with Germany after a few years. However, a key driver of medium-term relative performance will also be how both economies adapt to major “disruption”-related sectoral challenges.

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

Slider French pension reform

Slider French pension reform

26.09.2019 - Thematic Paper

French pension reform (an update)

In the previous paper “The French pension reform; a Trojan horse for a better control of the state budget”, the many difficulties that the reform had to overcome were listed. At the present time of the publication of Jean-Paul Delevoye’s report, these one haven’t faded away. The constraint of seeking a new financial equilibrium has even been added, while transport strikes or demonstrations of other professions seem to be only beginning.

Valérie LETORT

Fixed Income Strategy

France

France

25.07.2019 - Thematic Paper

France: the reform momentum stays alive after the Yellow Vest crisis

During the first 18 months of his presidential term, Emmanuel Macron has put through a highly ambitious set of reforms inspired by supply-side economics and the Nordic flexicurity model. While the biggest accomplishments have been in taxation and the job market, the goods and services markets and social benefits programmes have also been addressed.

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

FRENCH “YELLOW VESTS”

FRENCH “YELLOW VESTS”

12.12.2018 - Investment Talks

Why investors should care about French “yellow vests” protest

"The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services."

Vincent MORTIER, Frédéric ROSAMOND, Tristan PERRIER

French pension reform a Trojan Horse IMAGES

French pension reform a Trojan Horse IMAGES

13.09.2018 - Thematic Paper

French pension reform: a Trojan horse for a better control of the State budget?

After the reforms introduced in the 2000s, the financial sustainability of the current system appears to be assured under growth conditions.

Valérie LETORT

Fixed Income Strategy

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11.07.2018 - Thematic Paper

Pacte Law: What changes lie ahead for savings in France?

"The Pacte Law, presented on June 18, 2018 at the French Council of Ministers, should come into force no later than January 2020, after a period of parliamentary debates and the publication of implementing decrees"

Marie BRIERE, Xavier COLLOT

2018.05.30 - TP France, significant promises kept

2018.05.30 - TP France, significant promises kept

30.05.2018 - Thematic Paper

France: significant promises kept, but the most crucial reforms will take time

"Business-friendly labour market and tax reforms are quickly picked up by international investors."

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

2017.12 - Strategy Insight

2017.12 - Strategy Insight

01.12.2017 - Video

2018 and beyond

After another year marked by major political events like elections in Germany, in France or Donald Trump's first year presidency in the United States; by global economic recovery and bullish markets leading to wide spread cautious optimism; where are we headed now? What phase of the financial market cycle are we entering and what consequences for the investors?

Philippe ITHURBIDE

Senior Economic Advisor

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