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05.01.2021 - Investment Talks

A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

The deal: the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods, but trade will be affected by new non-tariff barriers such as customs checks and compliance procedures. The deal is lighter concerning trade in services, and in most services sectors providers will need to seek approval on a case-by-case basis with national authorities.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Tristan PERRIER

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01.12.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Q3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side

Q4 visibility has shrunk as new lockdown put at risk the recovery. EPS rebound should resume in 2021 given the base effect, the ramp-up of stimulus and a potential easing of containment measures alongside the progress made to curb the pandemic.

Debora DELBÓ

Global EM Senior Strategist

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01.12.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Big Tech at the crossroads…

Big Tech’s stock market performance has become more hesitant. A simple market rotation or a more durable phenomenon? With the exit from the crisis getting closer, sectors shunned during the pandemic could actually benefit from a catching-up movement.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Strategist

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27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic

At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Strategist

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08.04.2020 - Investment Talks

A lot of bad news already priced in US assets: a gradual approach to exploit market dislocations

US in the pandemic crisis: The US economy has entered a recession, induced by the social distancing and quarantining measures introduced to tackle the pandemic crisis. To monitor how deep the recession will be, we use both traditional macroeconomic data (eg, weekly retail sales, jobless claims) and big data (e.g., dining out, travel and box office sales, travel numbers and google searches for ‘recession’ and unemployment statistics).

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

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09.03.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

US and European corporate earnings: after four quarters of stagnation, what is the outlook for 2020?

Fourth quarter 2019 earnings season confirmed the flat trend of the past 12 months. Hardly had 2019 ended than all eyes turned to 2020. For several months now, the earnings growth consensus for 2020 looked too optimistic. The spreading of coronavirus has only made us more cautious. The epidemic will certainly have a big impact on the first quarter of 2020 but some catching-up can be expected in the following quarters. In the short term the market should remain nervous. In the longer term a cautious optimism should eventually prevail.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Strategist

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30.01.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on fundamentals: virus volatility provides entry points for EM equities

Overview: The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October. We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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08.01.2020 - Insights Paper

Time for a flight to cyclical value in European equity

When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value offers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Andreas WOSOL, Eric MIJOT, Alexandre DRABOWICZ

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29.10.2019 - Discussion Paper

Buybacks – A multi-perspective review and thoughts on best practices for company buyback policies

US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.

Ibra WANE, Craig STERLING

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