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The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions and analysis and drawing on insights from Amundi’s industry experts. We confirm our central scenario of subdued growth and inflation on a global scale, albeit leading to even lower returns due to complications from late-cycle investing. Recovery is likely as rates and profits normalise while central bank authorities stock up on the ammunitions needed to face further cyclical downturns.
Pascal BLANQUE, Monica DEFEND, Viviana GISIMUNDO
While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle. Exceptional features of this cycle are lower growth due to trade war escalation, unprecedented low interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy and a fairly resilient labour market due to the strong domestic sector resilience. Notwithstanding these specificities, the 2020 is still compatible with a late cycle phase; but the most likely scenario for the end of 2021 is the transition into a correction phase
Annalisa USARDI, Lorenzo PORTELLI
When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value offers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point.
Kasper ELMGREEN, Andreas WOSOL, Eric MIJOT, Alexandre DRABOWICZ
Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER