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10.02.2020 - Investment Talks

Brexit still weighs on GBP, but the situation on rates and equity could normalise

Now that the United Kingdom is officially out of the EU, a new phase has opened up, during which UK officials will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU to avoid a ‘Brexit cliff edge’ at the end of 2020. The available time span is short, but an agreement is possible on either a trade deal, another extension or some mixture of the two. The negotiations should be simplified now the UK is able to rely on a solid parliamentary majority, while on the EU side there can no longer be any hope that the UK will remain in the EU.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER, Jacques KELLER

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09.12.2019 - Insights Paper

Screen the Euro fixed income market in the era of three ‘lows’

As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.

Hervé BOIRAL, Sergio BERTONCINI, Francesca PANELLI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE, Eric BRARD, Gilles DAUPHINE

2016-02-05-Vignette total imployment

2016-02-05-Vignette total imployment

05.02.2016 - Thought of the Day

The unemployment rate declined to 10.4% in the Euro area in December 2015, vs 10.5% in November and 11.4% in December 2014.

The unemployment rate (as measured by Eurostat) declined in all 4 largest European countries in 2015, despite large divergences : it stood at 4.5% in December 2015 in Germany (vs 4.9% one year earlier), 10.2% in France (vs 10.5%), 11.4% in Italy (vs 10.4%) and 20.8% in Spain (vs 23.6%).

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

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