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Emerging Markets Charts Views 2021 Outlook and Beyond

04.12.2020 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - 2021 Outlook and Beyond

The US election outcome and the hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine will be a tangible reality by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 bode well for a worldwide economic recovery.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

01.12.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Q3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side

Q4 visibility has shrunk as new lockdown put at risk the recovery. EPS rebound should resume in 2021 given the base effect, the ramp-up of stimulus and a potential easing of containment measures alongside the progress made to curb the pandemic.

Debora DELBÓ

Global EM Senior Strategist

04.11.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Addressing the legacy of the crisis in the EM: the right policy mix in an uneven recovery

The duration of the epidemic will ultimately determine the shape of recovery. An uneven recovery and subdued inflation (barring any persistent supply shock) will call for a prolonged accommodative policy mix, in either monetary or fiscal policy. The merger of the two has to be careful monitored in emerging markets.

Alessia BERARDI

Head of Emerging Markets Macro & Strategy Research

28.10.2020 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - November 2020

Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing. The ability of the virus cycle, which is the most critical of the three cycles, to affect the other two is now lower vs the beginning of the year.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

13.10.2020 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market opportunities looking into 2021

The Covid-19 crisis and its impact on the economy (both oil and commodities dynamics and trade) have been the main drivers of the slowdown in emerging markets. Despite the significant disruption, we see signs of improvement in the virus cycle in most EM economies.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

03.09.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

An earnings season better than expected but the valuation issue has not yet been resolved…

There was a substantial decline in Q2 earnings but they turned out to be better than expected; their decline being ultimately less pronounced than during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, whereas the current recession is much more severe. This surprising resilience is due in large part to sector aspects. Financial stocks have generally proved more resilient than during the GFC. Furthermore, the Healthcare and Technology sectors have emerged remarkably unscathed. The other side of the coin is that, without these last two sectors, the decline in earnings would have been much more pronounced. Given the revisions made and the achievements in H1, barring a new general lockdown episode, most of the consensus adjustment seems to be behind us. However, the valuation debate - excessive or not - is still far from being resolved. The duration of the crisis will be the key parameter in responding to this question.

Ibra WANE

Senior Equity Strategist

23.07.2020 - Insights Paper

The New Silk Road routes: Why investors should care

The global outbreak of Covid-19 has brought the world and its economy to a standstill, highlighting the importance of sustainable and resilient infrastructure (healthcare, water, power, telecommunications). Countries with fragile infrastructure have less capacity to handle crises, so they will need to increase their infrastructure investments. This is especially crucial in the context of health security and rapid urbanisation.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

Slider Risk factor, Macroeconomic context and forecasts

27.05.2020 - Monthly Cross Asset

Macroeconomic picture - June 2020

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Amundi Research

19.05.2020 - Insights Paper

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However, for those experienced in financial markets, shocks are nothing new, particularly within EM.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV

Global Head of EM

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Emerging Markets Charts & Views - 2021 Outlook and Beyond

Q3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side

Addressing the legacy of the crisis in the EM: the right policy mix in an uneven recovery

Global Investment Views - November 2020

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market opportunities looking into 2021

An earnings season better than expected but the valuation issue has not yet been resolved…

The New Silk Road routes: Why investors should care

Macroeconomic picture - June 2020

Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

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