Fixed Income Strategist
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Should the €2,800 billion in sovereign bonds or the equivalent* that are on the European Central Bank’s balance sheet be treated just like any other bonds? This question, which has come up regularly over the past several months, is far from being of mere academic interest. In fact, it is symptomatic of a wish to forgive or even cancel a portion of the public debt being raised to cope with the Covid-19 crisis. But, rather than simply ignoring it, a more standard solution for the financial markets would be to regard such debt as virtual for the moment and to exclude it temporarily from public debt ratios.
Head of Investment Intelligence
The global economy rebounded quickly during the summer from the coronavirus pandemic. In this phase of recovery, central banks played a key role in the massive supply of credit to governments and companies. To tackle the health crisis, almost all governments implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus and support measures, including corporate loan guarantees. At the same time, major central banks increased their purchases of sovereign debt to levels never seen before, played a backstop role in the corporate debt market and provided cheap liquidity to banks (in the case of the ECB). In a second phase, we expect government to implement stimulus measures. What will be the impact for the fixed income market?
Valentine AINOUZ, Delphine GEORGES
Funding progress looked quite encouraging at July end for Eurozone government bonds, as roughly 80% of estimated yearly net issuance have been placed, mostly (more than 50%) in just four months, between April and July. Putting remaining supply in perspectives with ECB flows, the technical picture for EZ government bonds looks friendly to the current environment of low core yields and subsequent, persisting search for carry.
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
Cyclical conditions are turning more positive for Europe. Easing geopolitical risk and the prospect of massive fiscal resources (national and EU-wide) and monetary support could support a recovery in 2021. The improved sentiment could benefit European assets, equities in particular, that have been a laggard due to the pandemic. This could lead to a catch up of EU equities in relative terms vs other markets.
Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER
A lot is coming from the fiscal side in Europe to fight the economic consequences of the crisis: French supplementary budget just released, Germany abandoning the black zero policy, and the debate on recovery plan taking center stage, with some adjustments in countries’ positions. How to assess these recent evolutions?