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The Covid-19 crisis drove the global economy into an unprecedented deep freeze in the first half of 2020. The combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus will help the global economy de-freeze in H2. As was the case with the virus cycle, the recovery will be sequential and involve different regions at different times - on a ‘first in, first out’ basis - and will depend on the size of the policy response. As the global economy gradually de-freezes, investors will turn their focus back to geopolitics.
Remaining active, selecting the assets and preserving liquidity are the key points of this new Blue Convictions episode on Amundi’s global investment views. Central Banks are still game changers, but the risk of default for fixed income and the need of earnings growth check for equities have to be considered in the medium term. On the currency market, what about the recent appetite for the euro versus the dollar? Listen to Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, who explains our views and convictions: a bumpy road to a “day after” renaissance.