SUMMARY Risk factorsThe table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts. Macroeconomic context - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios. Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions Macro and Market forecasts |
||
December 2019 |
Décembre 2019 |
|
The table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not marked based). It also develops the possible market impacts.
This section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios.
|
CENTRAL SCENARIO (55% probability): resilient domestic demand and services despite the uncertainty adversely affecting trade |
|
|
DOWNSIDE RISK SCENARIO (30%): full-blown contagion to domestic demand |
Two “families” of risks with different conclusions on monetary policies and scenarios 1. Trade-related risks: global trade takes longer to “normalise”, additional escalation in the trade war, and full-blown contagion into consumption:
2. Market-related risks: sudden repricing of risk premia with a large impact on financial conditions, exacerbated by low liquidity (various triggers: wars (e.g., the Middle East), the crisis in HK, credit event (HY) etc.)
|
|
UPSIDE RISK SCENARIO (15%): modest reacceleration of global growth in 2020 |
|
|
| |
---|---|---|
AMERICAS |
|
RISK FACTORS |
UNITED STATES |
US growth gliding along, supported by monetary policy
|
|
EUROPE |
|
|
EUROZONE |
Some improvement
|
|
UNITED KINGDOM
|
Towards election and, probably, an orderly Brexit
|
|
ASIA |
|
|
JAPAN |
Q4/19 will be the worst, and a re-acceleration is around the corner
|
|
CHINA |
|
|
ASIA (ex JP & CH) |
|
|
LATAM |
|
|
EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) |
Russia: Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2019. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2020 and over the medium term on the back of a significant infrastructure spending programme from 2019 to 2024 and a lower-interest-rate environment.
South Africa: strong headwinds with a challenging political and social backdrop
Turkey: inflation is on the decline and GDP growth picked up in Q3- 2019
|
|