SUMMARY Risk factorsThe table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts. Macroeconomic context - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios. Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions Macro and Market forecasts |
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November 2019 |
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Novembre 2019 |
The table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not marked based). It also develops the possible market impacts.
This section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios.
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CENTRAL SCENARIO (60% probability): resilient domestic demand and services despite the uncertainty adversely affecting trade |
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DOWNSIDE RISK SCENARIO (30%): full-blown contagion to domestic demand |
Two “families” of risks with different conclusions on monetary policies and scenarios 1. Trade-related risks: global trade takes longer to “normalise”, additional escalation on trade war, and full-blown contagion into consumption:
2. Market-related risks: sudden repricing of risk premia with a large impact on financial conditions, exacerbated by low liquidity (various triggers: wars (e.g., Middle East), crisis in HK, credit event (HY) etc.)
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UPSIDE RISK SCENARIO (10%): modest reacceleration of global growth in 2020 |
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AMERICAS |
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RISK FACTORS |
UNITED STATES |
US growth gradually decelerates; monetary policy easing continues
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EUROPE |
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EUROZONE |
The economy is still sputtering along
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UNITED KINGDOM
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No-deal Brexit risk has receded markedly
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ASIA |
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JAPAN |
Problem is not the VAT hike but awful weather
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CHINA |
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ASIA (ex JP & CH) |
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LATAM |
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EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) |
Russia: Real GDP growth is expected to slow down to 1.2% in 2019. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2020 and over the medium term on the back of a significant infrastructure spending programme from 2019 to 2024 and a lower interest rate environment.
South Africa: exit from recession, but no miracle
Turkey: we expect double-digit inflation and a recession in 2019
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