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In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, national subsidies, national champions), decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors, rising policy uncertainty and more recently, trade tensions.
The distribution of share of national income to labour versus capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Amundi believes that the Covid-19 crisis – together with other factors – will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades.