Advantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate

• President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden.  For Biden, it was to reassure voters that he has the mental and physical stamina to handle the office of the Presidency. Polls, surveys and the investment betting markets immediately following the debate indicated Biden with a clear advantage following one of the most raucous and chaotic debates in US history.
• The debate covered six pre-planned topics, plus one last-minute addition. The candidates debated their Records, the Supreme Court, COVID-19, the Economy, Race and Violence in our Cities, the Integrity of the Election, and also Climate Change. It was a messy, freewheeling debate. The tone was set early with name-calling, shouting and constant interruptions. Trump claimed that if Biden is elected, the United States would experience “a depression the likes of which you’ve never seen before.” When Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden during a discussion about the Supreme Court, Biden retorted, “Will you shut up, man?” The exchange captures the acrimonious tenor of the debate. From a policy perspective, no new ground was gained.

Key takeaways from the debate

• Trump failed to highlight key policies he would implement in a second term.  The debate would have been a perfect opportunity to display key economic and tax policy initiatives that could help sway undecided and marginal Biden supporters. Instead, voters have been left asking Trump’s rationale for a second term.
• Biden failed to articulate his active agenda for a Biden Presidency but was able to address some of his climate change and healthcare policy initiatives. In an insight how he planned to fight Trump’s appointment to the Supreme Court vacancy, Biden warned Trump’s nominee could eliminate Obamacare and impinge on women reproductive rights.
• Trump added fuel to his culture war. He reaffirmed his white supremacy position with his comment that the white nationalist group Proud Boys should “Stand back and stand by”. This will not allay concerns among many Americans troubled by racial injustice and protests on the street.
• On election legitimacy, Trump failed to say whether he would accept the election results. He continued to raise doubts on mail-in ballots raising the prospect of fraud.
• Finally, Trump tried to delegitimise the process in the hope it depresses turnout.