US presidential election outcome: Joe Biden has enjoyed a remarkably stable lead in the national polls this year. Currently, he is leading President Trump by 7.6%, according to our poll of polls, down from a peak of 10.4% in June. However, we believe the race is much closer, at around 50/50, with a small Biden edge. The outcome remains uncertain for different reasons.
Didier BOROWSKI, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA
The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
Paresh UPADHYAYA, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD
US in the pandemic crisis: The US economy has entered a recession, induced by the social distancing and quarantining measures introduced to tackle the pandemic crisis. To monitor how deep the recession will be, we use both traditional macroeconomic data (eg, weekly retail sales, jobless claims) and big data (e.g., dining out, travel and box office sales, travel numbers and google searches for ‘recession’ and unemployment statistics).
Kenneth J. TAUBES, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA