SUMMARY Risk factorsThe table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts. Macroeconomic context - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios. Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions Macro and Market forecasts |
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January 2020 |
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Janvier 2020
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The table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not marked based). It also develops the possible market impacts.
This section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios.
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CENTRAL SCENARIO (55% probability): resilient domestic demand and services despite the uncertainty still affecting trade |
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DOWNSIDE RISK SCENARIO (30%): full-blown contagion into domestic demand |
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UPSIDE RISK SCENARIO (15%): modest reacceleration of global growth in 2020 |
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AMERICAS |
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RISK FACTORS |
UNITED STATES |
US growth gliding along, supported by monetary policy
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EUROPE |
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EUROZONE |
Bottoming out
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UNITED KINGDOM
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An orderly Brexit at the end of January 2020
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ASIA |
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JAPAN |
A glimmer of hope
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CHINA |
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ASIA (ex JP & CH) |
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LATAM |
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EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) |
Russia: Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2019. However, it is expected to accelerate in 2020 and over the medium term on the back of a significant infrastructure spending programme from 2019 to 2024 and a lower-interest-rate environment.
South Africa: strong headwinds with a challenging political and social backdrop
Turkey: inflation is on the decline, and GDP growth picked up in Q3- 2019
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