SUMMARY Risk factorsThe table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios. Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions Macro and Market forecasts |
||
September 2019 |
|
Septembre 2019 |
The table below presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not marked based). It also develops the possible market impacts.
This section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios.
|
CENTRAL SCENARIO (60% probability): resilient domestic demand and services despite the uncertainty adversely affecting trade |
|
|
DOWNSIDE RISK SCENARIO (30%): full-blown contagion to domestic demand |
Two «families» of risks with different conclusions on monetary policies and scenarios 1. Trade-related risks: global trade takes longer to «normalise», additional escalation on trade war and full blown contagion to consumption:
2. Market-related risks: sudden repricing of risk premia with a large impact on financial conditions exacerbated by low liquidity (various triggers: wars (e.g. Middle East), crisis in HK, credit event (HY) etc.)
|
|
UPSIDE RISK SCENARIO (10%): modest reacceleration of global growth in 2020 |
We are raising the probability of the upside risk scenario (and lowering the probability of the central to 60%)
|
|
| |
---|---|---|
AMERICAS |
|
RISK FACTORS |
UNITED STATES |
US growth gradually decelerates amid trade war concerns and geopolitical uncertainty
|
|
EUROPE |
|
|
EUROZONE |
Weaker industrial activity is adversely affecting the economy
|
|
UNITED KINGDOM
|
Increased risk of no-deal Brexit
|
|
ASIA |
|
|
JAPAN |
External threats gradually impair the corporate sector
|
|
CHINA |
|
|
ASIA (ex JP & CH) |
|
|
LATAM |
|
|
EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) |
Russia: Real GDP growth was 2.2% in 2018 and is expected to slow down to 1.2% in 2019. However, growth is expected to accelerate over the medium term on the back of a significant infrastructure spending programme from 2019 to 2024.
South Africa: exit from recession, but no miracle
Turkey: we expect double-digit inflation and a recession in 2019
|
|