Kasper ELMGREEN, Eric MIJOT, Ibra WANE, Tristan PERRIER
Fourth quarter 2019 earnings season confirmed the flat trend of the past 12 months. Hardly had 2019 ended than all eyes turned to 2020. For several months now, the earnings growth consensus for 2020 looked too optimistic. The spreading of coronavirus has only made us more cautious. The epidemic will certainly have a big impact on the first quarter of 2020 but some catching-up can be expected in the following quarters. In the short term the market should remain nervous. In the longer term a cautious optimism should eventually prevail.
As the earnings season comes to a close, the time has come to report back on what we have found. With double-digit earnings growth in all the developed regions and substantial revisions to EPS, the season came out largely as promised. Between now and the end of the year, delivering surprises will be more difficult. Against this backdrop, the eurozone, where the recovery continues and where the bases for making comparisons are favourable, should offer strong opportunities.