One of Trump’s top ambitions was to bring economic growth back above 3% over the long term. However, it looks like the United States’ position in the credit cycle (record corporate debt and significant household use of consumer credit) will thwart these plans.
Bastien Drut & Valentine Ainouz
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
Historical empirical evidence shows that credit spreads tend to peak at the end of recessionary periods. Then, credit recovers with rising government bond yields: recovery means improving credit metrics through an increasing cash flow generation. Did it work also in the present cycle?
Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI, Bastien DRUT
The global economy enjoyed a strongest upturn in 2017. The upswing was broad and driven by a notable rebound in global trade and an investment recovery in advanced economies. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment has allowed central banks to confirm the gradual reduction (at different speeds) in the accommodative stance of monetary policy.
Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI, Silvia DI SILVIO