Economy & Markets

The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history regarding a comprehensive package worth €1,824bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument – is a significant achievement and a net positive in the short term for EU assets.

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The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels.

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The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus. In addition to funding the emergency response to the virus situation itself, these packages intend to prevent a worsening of the crisis through the financial and household income channels.

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After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries.

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As the Covid-19 virus spreads, investors can assess the potential sequence of market opportunities that will emerge from the crisis.

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The US economy has entered a recession, induced by the social distancing and quarantining measures introduced to tackle the pandemic crisis.

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Covid-19 is expected to severely damage the European economy in the coming quarters.

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In this unprecedented time of high uncertainty from a sanitary and economic perspective, the different drivers at play are moving in different directions.

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Where we stand in the crisis and what to watch: Investors have moved from underestimating the severity of the crisis (buoyant markets) to a full global escalation (with the US joining emergency measures) that has led to market disruption and over-reaction.

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