Understanding the outcome of the July FOMC meeting and its market and implications.

The partial shutoff of gas deliveries is already affecting European growth momentum. Discover what could be the economic impact of a total cutoff and what are the investment implications.

Central banks will be aggressive in the short term as they try to re-establish credibility, with the European Central Bank a case in point.

In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies.

After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central Banks committing to tame inflation, puts the delicate fiscal and monetary equilibrium under the spotlight.

July meeting: The ECB hiked its three key interest rates by 50bp for the first time in more than a decade, bringing its rates out of negative territory.

Italian government crisis, likely outcome: snap elections the most likely outcome. Prime Minister Draghi would remain at the helm of a caretaker government, until a new one is formed after the elections.

With the economic situation having deteriorated considerably since the beginning of the year, it is vital for the Conservative Party to agree on a new leader quickly.

The H2 economic outlook will feature divergences in growth, inflation and policy mix across regions. Stagflation risk will be a common feature across Developed Markets (DM). In addition, since there will no longer be a synchronous global cycle, country risk is back.