9.03.2020 22

Thematics Views - March 2020

Published March 9, 2020

> 10 minutes

> 10 minutes

Should Central Banks save us from ourselves?

From unemployment and inflation to climate change and social inequality, central banks (CB) are on the frontlines. In the context of the ECB’s and the Federal Reserve’s strategic reviews there are now open debates about their new tools, targets and mandates. But a more profound change in central banks’ behaviour should also be discussed, regarding recession aversion, fiscal dependence and markets interaction.

Coronavirus and Italy’s vulnerability

We leverage data from the Italian statistics office (ISTAT) at a regional and provincial level to put the possible impact of the virus outbreak on economic growth into perspective. With considerable uncertainty about how long the crisis will last, as of now, a zero-growth scenario this year already seems on the cards.

The repricing of credit risk

Markets are now questioning the assumption of world growth stabilization. Before the sell-off, corporate debt market was driven by
liquidity/search for yields without worrying about fundamentals: huge inflows, very active primary market, and tight valuation. This risk-off market moves could penalize global growth, especially given how late we are in the cycle.


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