CENTRAL & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (12 TO 18 MONTHS HORIZON)
We note progress on the vaccine front despite logistics and side effects issues. In our central scenario, equities outperform on the back of abundant liquidity, improving fundamentals and accommodative monetary policy. Vaccine resistant virus variants, hawkish policy surprises and geopolitical tensions are the main sources of risks. Beyond 18 months, we expect (US) growth to revert to potential amid an higher inflation regime while stagflationary pressures will rise across Europe.
The balance of risks evolves over time. While it is premature to significantly de-risk portfolios while macro and micro fundamentals are still improving and accelerating, we believe there are narrower margins for a policy mistake or adverse events.