CENTRAL & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (12 TO 18 MONTHS HORIZON)
On the back of our quarterly updates, we have reviewed the narrative and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios. In our central scenario, the policy mix and improving fundamentals support the recovery and markets. Beyond 18 months, we expect US growth to revert to potential amid a higher inflation regime, while stagflationary pressures rise, in particular across Europe. As valuations are stretched and economic momentum is fading, the expected risk-adjusted return of equities is diminishing. We now consider vaccine-resistant virus variants or vaccination-related issues as a risk to the central scenario.