Central & Alternative Scenarios
This month, we update the probabilities and narrative of our central and alternative scenarios, taking into account 4Q20 developments in vaccinations, fiscal and monetary policies, and (geo)politics. We have a higher conviction on our central scenario and we are raising its probability from 65% to 75%. We are lowering the probability of our downside scenario from 25% to 15%, which remains above historical levels. We confirm our constructive medium-term view on the “financial recovery regime”, with more caution in the short-term on financial markets, given the virus-dependent news flow.