Thematic Paper Macroeconomy
27.11.2018 14

Global Macro - Outlook to 2020


27 November, 2018

> 10 minutes
Global Macro - Outlook to 2020

27 November, 2018

> 10 minutes


In the world economy, 2018 began based on the theme of a synchronised global recovery. But, this did not last. Since the spring, the protectionist measures taken by Donald Trump have changed the game. Emerging economies, some of which are heavily indebted in dollars, have been weakened due to the broadbased appreciation of the US currency. The depreciation of their currencies has generated local inflation and led their central banks to tighten monetary policies, which has weighed on economies already negatively affected by massive capital outflows. Advanced economies have begun to slow down. In our view, the year will end with a global economy that is evolving in a disjointed fashion, with increased downside risks.


Table of contents:


  • Our convictions and scenarios



  • United States: Safely cruising away from uncharted waters,few clouds around
  • Eurozone: The expansion continues albeit at a slower pace and amid a difficult political context
  • United Kingdom: It’s all about politics
  • Japan: Expanding at near potential pace
  • Emerging markets: Twin shocks on the EM Outlook
  • Central European countries: Entering the downward phase in their cycle
  • China: From risks to opportunities 



  • Tables


To find out more, download the full paper




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