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ECB QE Monitor - March 2022


17 March, 2022

5 to 10 minutes
ECB QE Monitor - March 2022

17 March, 2022

5 to 10 minutes

Key points

  • ECB PEPP & APP: In February 2022, total net purchase pace was around €61bn vs €69bn in January 2022.
  • PEPP
    • Purchases amounted to €40bn in February, below those of January and consistent with a moderately weaker pace of purchases compared to Q4 2021. This brought total purchases under PEPP to €1,673bn on an envelope of €1,850 billion usable until the end of March 2022.
    • The PEPP remained heavily oriented towards the public sector (around 97% of PEPP purchases). 
    • No granular details for PEPP were available at this release as the ECB will only publish details of PEPP composition (private/public or 
      jurisdiction) on a bimonthly basis and the next one will be in early April.
  • APP
    • Purchases settled €21bn in February 2022 vs. €19bn in January, slightly above the monthly target of € 20bn. 
    • In February APP by programme:  PSPP (€12.1bn; 58.4% of total), CSPP (€6.3bn; 30.3%), CBPP3 (€2.38bn; 11.48%) and ABSPP (€-0.05bn; -0.2).
    • Shares of public sector and corporate sector securities was above the level of recent months. 
    • The average maturity of PSPP remained stable at 7.3 years in February. 
    • Deviation of PSPP purchases from capital key proportions was in favour of Germany, Italy and Supras and against in France, likely due to redemption smoothening.
    • APP redemptions in February 2022 amounted to €8.8bn, including €3.6bn in PSPP. Between March 2022 and February 2023, total APP redemptions will amount to €304bn including €238bn of PSPP redemptions.

Our convictions

  • At its last meeting, the ECB was clearly on the hawkish side: 
    • ECB now focuses heavily on inflation and is determined to fulfill its price stability mandate. 
    • Downward revisions to growth forecasts remain modest. 
    • The ECB acknowledged the very high level of uncertainty and asserted that all options were on the table. 
    • The path of monetary policy will depend on data.

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