- In the PEPP:
- The monthly pace is close to €80bn (€80.7bn).
- The role of public sector is dominant (98% of combined public and corporate debt increase, net of CP debt reduction).
- In the PEPP: the share of supra (EU) is now close to 9% of public debt purchases.
- In the APP: the purchase of corporate bonds remains robust close to €5bn (around 26% of the purchases). This is its highest share since the beginning of the programme.
- No significant deviation from capital keys between countries. However, we have noticed that in recent months Germany and the Netherlands have been overbought as the ECB tries to reduce its past deviations.
- Increased WAM of sovereign bonds holdings, once again especially in core countries, also thanks to Bills redemptions reinvested in bond,
- In total, PEPP purchases by the end of May amount to roughly EUR 1.1trn meaning that the remaining envelope is close to EUR 750bn, ultimately pointing to a EUR 75bn volume per month in order to use all the potential by March 2022. Assuming a natural slowdown in August and December close to historical averages, the path could be even closer to €80bn in remaining months till March 2022, in case of full usage.
2023 Investment Outlook - Some light for investors after the...