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2.10.2020 15

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: the cycle round trip is confirmed Advanced Investment Phazer: top-down assessment

Published October 2, 2020

5 to 10 minutes

5 to 10 minutes

SUMMARY


  • Economic and corporate-profit recoveries continue along a gradual, upward-sloping catch-up process, where growth speed and composition will be key to landing in a “recovery financial regime” towards year’s end.
  • Transition to the new financial regime will continue amid a sequel of relapses in the real economy, where policy boosters will prove critical, moving the needle between base and risk scenario.
  • Over the next three to six months, while keeping the risk budget unchanged, progressively rotate risk from US HY into deep value/cyclical equities. Global IG remains supported by central banks’ purchasing programs and offer palatable yields. Lastly, expansive monetary policies and safe haven nature will support gold.

 

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