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29.07.2020 55

Challenges and opportunities in US Commercial Real Estate

Published July 29, 2020

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The essential


  • Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting different sectors of the US commercial real estate market, and driving major short- and long-term trends that have consequences for investors.
  • Within major subsectors of US commercial real estate, we are negative on the outlook for retail and senior housing sectors, cautious on office space, and positive on the industrial sector.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has raised concerns over the durability and health of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. At the start of the pandemic, there were concerns the CRE sector might be acutely more vulnerable to remote working, the surge in unemployment and the recession. Instead, what we found is that the impact is more nuanced across the retail, office, senior housing and industrial subsectors and based on the macro outlook for this sector we expect there will be clear winners and losers.

The Covid-19 pandemic has upended life for millions across the globe and disproportionately disrupted broader demographic, and seemingly well-entrenched demographic consumption trends. US CRE is likely to feel the effects of these shifts in a number of ways, including risks that are being underestimated in some subsectors and have the potential for far-reaching consequences to the broader financial markets.

 

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