5/03/2024 Economy & Markets Can the US sustain a rising debt burden? Dive deep into the intricacies of the burgeoning US debt crisis and its profound implications for the finance sector. Explore nuanced fiscal adjustment...
15/01/2024 Jobs and inflation on market’s radar Amid a large consensus that the rate hike cycle has ended, markets are now trying to assess the timing of the next rate cuts. Together with inflation...
8/01/2024 Year-end rally turning uncertain in 2024 Resilient US growth and slowing inflation led the markets higher in 2023 but recent market movements show the challenges that lie ahead.
18/12/2023 Fed and ECB: towards rate cuts in 2024 The Fed was clearly dovish, judging from its statement, revised projections and press conference. The ECB committee was more prudent, yet still paving...
15/12/2023 Economy & Markets Dovish Fed contemplates rate cuts: risks to weaker US growth persist Markets reacted positively to the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, but investors should be cautious as risks to weaker US growth persist.
14/11/2023 Economy & Markets Central banks’ unwinding will put more public debt in market hands Investors should prepare for a new quantitative tightening paradigm, as major central banks have started unwinding their large balance sheets.
17/10/2023 Economy & Markets Central banks’ endgame: a new policy paradigm Dive into the effects of central bank balance sheet normalization on financial markets, government bond yields, and the evolving investment landscape....
10/08/2023 Podcasts Outerblue Talks Research – Parallels with the 70s. The long and winding road continues
28/07/2023 Economy & Markets Fed moving to a pause with a very data-dependent approach The Talks elaborates on the banking stress in US and the FOMC May meeting.
19/06/2023 Economy & Markets 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay Despite many similarities between the inflationary period in the 1970s and in the 2020s, the two scenarios are not identical.
23/03/2023 Economy & Markets Fed delivers a dovish hike: a rate cycle peak may be close Inflation remains the Fed's main concern. We remain cautious and anticipate market volatility, given the central bank continues to be data dependent.
8/02/2023 Economy & Markets Why and what if inflation falls faster than expected? High inflation has not triggered a wage-price spiral in the advanced economies. Monetary tightening has contained inflation expectations and a continued firm...
7/02/2023 Economy & Markets Fed continuing to downshift: 31 January-1 February FOMC review Review of the February FOMC meeting and its market implications.
16/12/2022 Economy & Markets Fed: Staying the course until the job is done Understanding the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and its market implications.
7/11/2022 Economy & Markets For the Fed, the impossible QT The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation.