Thematic papers / Publications / Research Center

Thematic paper - Quarterly Asset Class Return Forecasts

30.10.2020 - Thematic Paper

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 - 2020

As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between the factors will continue to evolve having an effect in the short and medium-term, the monitoring of these relationships will remain at the forefront of future communications.

Monica DEFEND, Viviana GISIMUNDO, Jung Hun KIM MOON, Lorenzo PORTELLI

10.08.2020 - Thematic Paper

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020

All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging.

Monica DEFEND, Viviana GISIMUNDO, Jung Hun KIM MOON, Lorenzo PORTELLI

18.05.2020 - Thematic Paper

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2020

In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and subdued inflation prints.

Monica DEFEND, Viviana GISIMUNDO, Jung Hun KIM MOON, Lorenzo PORTELLI

06.05.2020 - Thematic Paper

Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits

The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus.

Tristan PERRIER

Global Views Analyst

06.02.2020 - Thematic Paper

Asset classes views: Detecting Tipping Points

The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions and analysis and drawing on insights from Amundi’s industry experts. We confirm our central scenario of subdued growth and inflation on a global scale, albeit leading to even lower returns due to complications from late-cycle investing. Recovery is likely as rates and profits normalise while central bank authorities stock up on the ammunitions needed to face further cyclical downturns.

Pascal BLANQUE, Monica DEFEND, Viviana GISIMUNDO

14.01.2020 - Thematic Paper

U.S. inflation… what’s up?

From the CPI data, in particular the HCPI, one would get the sense that inflation has decelerated and stabilised somewhat.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

08.11.2019 - Thematic Paper

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 - 2019

Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks.

Viviana GISIMUNDO, Jung Hun KIM MOON

18.10.2019 - Thematic Paper

Italy: few ambitions from the new budget framework

On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

26.09.2019 - Thematic Paper

French pension reform (an update)

In the previous paper “The French pension reform; a Trojan horse for a better control of the state budget”, the many difficulties that the reform had to overcome were listed. At the present time of the publication of Jean-Paul Delevoye’s report, these one haven’t faded away. The constraint of seeking a new financial equilibrium has even been added, while transport strikes or demonstrations of other professions seem to be only beginning.

Valérie LETORT

Fixed Income Strategy

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Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 - 2020

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2020

Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits

Asset classes views: Detecting Tipping Points

U.S. inflation… what’s up?

Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 - 2019

Italy: few ambitions from the new budget framework

French pension reform (an update)

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