Investment Talks / Publications / Research Center

15.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Italy: ECB's umbrella to protect bond market, despite uncertain political situation

Political situation: On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now. In our view, the most likely scenarios are: Prime Minister Giuseppe Contecould seek to win a confidence vote,with support from parties both inside and outside the ruling majority and also unaffiliated lawmakers (Gruppo Misto);Conte could step down, triggering a new round of talksthat could eventually lead to a new administration, headed by Conte himself or another Prime Minister, with support from the same alliance; or a caretaker administration could be appointed to manage the government until the next election.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

08.01.2021 - Investment Talks

Biden and Democrats take control despite Trump protesters

Georgia runoffs results: The 2020 US general elections ended on 6 January 2021 with a Democratic sweep of two critical Georgia Senate seats, giving Democrats a slim majority and control of government until at least the next round of Congressional elections in two years. The stunning developments on Capitol Hill will not change the significance of the Georgia election, which will have far-reaching implications for Biden’s policy agenda and financial markets.

Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

05.01.2021 - Investment Talks

A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

The deal: the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods, but trade will be affected by new non-tariff barriers such as customs checks and compliance procedures. The deal is lighter concerning trade in services, and in most services sectors providers will need to seek approval on a case-by-case basis with national authorities.

Kasper ELMGREEN, Matteo GERMANO, Tristan PERRIER

18.12.2020 - Investment Talks

Georgia Senate runoffs to determine future of Biden presidency

While the title sounds dramatic, what happens in Georgia on 5 January is critical to US policy over the next four years. Following the 3 November elections, it was looking like a divided government, with Joe Biden elected President and the Republicans holding the US Senate. But as the trickle in counting occurred in Georgia, it became evident that there will be runoff elections on 5 January for both Georgia Senate seats, after no candidate received the 50% majority mark required to avoid a runoff. This has paved the way for potential Democratic control of the Senate by the barest of majorities.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

16.12.2020 - Investment Talks

Private markets: a strong value proposition that may emerge reinforced after the crisis

Private markets: The Covid-19 crisis has caused significant disruption in private markets, but investor appetite for real assets stays unabated. Fundraising will be supported by abundant liquidity. Selectivity and diversification will be key and only the best quality assets should be considered. Real assets are a portfolio diversifier and volatility dampener. Given their long-term nature, investors should not rush tactically into these assets and be selective in order to capture the different premiums embedded in real asset investing.

Dominique CARREL-BILLIARD, Guy LODEWYCKX, Stanislas CUNY, Thierry VALLIERE, Marc BERTRAND, Matthieu POISSON

11.12.2020 - Investment Talks

The US election and Covid-19 vaccines: implications for the economy and markets

The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy, that is, higher taxes.

Kenneth J. TAUBES

CIO of US Investment Management

12.11.2020 - Investment Talks

France outlook

In Q3 France posted a major surprise, with its 18.2% QoQ rise in GDP beating both consensus and our expectations, and leaving the French economy only about 4.0% below pre-Covid levels. But with the second wave and the new lockdown taking a toll on activity and sentiment, we now expect a new contraction of 3.3% QoQ in Q4. This will be followed by a slow and uneven recovery, which will reach full traction only from Q2 2021, when we assume restrictions will be fully lifted. In the meantime, a ‘stop and go’ process may take place, making the recovery path bumpier and more uncertain.

Annalisa USARDI

Senior Economist

10.11.2020 - Investment Talks

2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided

Final result: Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. While Trump has not conceded yet, he became only the third President to fail to win re-election since World War II. In the end, the election was a referendum on Trump as a man rather than an indictment of his policies.

Paresh UPADHYAYA

Director of Currency Strategy, US Portfolio Manager, US

04.11.2020 - Investment Talks

US election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade

US election outcome: At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win). We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.

Didier BOROWSKI, Paresh UPADHYAYA, Monica DEFEND

Select your profile* : Individuals investor Financial professionals		* Required fields


		The Captcha field is wrong or empty
The personal data collected above are intended for AMUNDI ASSET MANAGEMENT and are for the sole purpose of enabling you to receive a response to your request for information. AMUNDI ASSET MANAGEMENT undertakes to keep your personal data for the duration of our exchanges. In accordance with the European Regulation on the processing of personal data (RGPD 2016/679), you have the right to access, rectify, and delete your data by writing to AMUNDI ASSET MANAGEMENT BSC/SEC/PCA - 90, bd Pasteur - CS 21564 - 75730 Paris – FRANCE or by e-mail to dpo@amundi.com. By checking the box above, you declare that you understand and accept these conditions.

the articles & research center news

TYPE OF PUBLICATION

ASSET CLASS

REGION

FORMAT

AUTHOR(S)

TAGS