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17.12.2019 - Investment Talks

2020 outlook for the US 10-year Treasury bond

In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010. In 2020, we think the 10-year Treasury may trade in a similar range, with additional volatility arising from many of the same factors that drove volatility in 2019. We don’t expect the benchmark bond to exhibit a particular bias towards going higher or lower, assuming certain outlier scenarios are avoided. The current cyclical slowdown phase calls for caution, but investors may also want to prepare for a U-turn if and when earnings and economic growth reaccelerates. A macro environment marked bystabilising growth and a patient but supportive Federal Reserve should be positive for risk assets in general.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD, Marco PIRONDINI

Slider UK General Election

Slider UK General Election

11.12.2019 - Investment Talks

UK election could pave the way for an orderly Brexit and a rebound in equities

The possibility of seeing a smoother, faster Brexit will depend on the outcome of the UK election on Thursday, 12 December.

Tristan PERRIER, Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN

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12.11.2019 - Investment Talks

Renewed expansion of Fed balance sheet will not be QE but will affect markets

On 30 October the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the third time this year, while hinting at a pause over the next few months. The rate cut followed the Fed’s announcement on 11 October that it will address a liquidity shortage causing volatility in the overnight loan market by buying $60 billion per month in Treasury bills until Q2 2020 and support overnight repo operations through January 2020.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD

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06.11.2019 - Investment Talks

China’s growth tremors: risks, opportunities and the road ahead

Soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest pace since the early 1990s. Moving into 2020, we do expect that the new growth target will be set around 6.0%, if not lower, at between 5.5% and 6.0%, and our current forecast is confirmed at 5.8% YoY.Exports unsurprisingly have been weak, private capex has slowed notably, and public infrastructure has not picked up as expected. Going forward, we expect public infrastructure capex to accelerate, and the tight real estate policy stance to potentially moderate. Chinese policy mix remains stimulative, though in a very limited way so far and far away from the massive stimulus implemented in recent years.

Vincent MORTIER, Alessia BERARDI, Angelo CORBETTA, Esther LAW

Vignette 600x400

Vignette 600x400

30.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Brexit extension will ease uncertainty looming on UK assets

Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the United Kingdom and the EU will be ratified, leading to an orderly Brexit and the initiation of a transition period during which the United Kingdom will retain most of its access to the EU single market until at least end-2020. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is now greatly diminished.

Tristan PERRIER, Kasper ELMGREEN, Monica DEFEND, Laurent CROSNIER

Vignette 600x400

Vignette 600x400

14.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Liquidity dilemma needs a regulatory response

A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

US President impeachment

US President impeachment

11.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Trump impeachment is likely, but impact on financial markets would be short-lived

The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD

Brexit update

Brexit update

04.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Brexit Update - Moving towards the October 31st deadline

What are the different options expected and what potential impacts on the market can be foreseen? Amundi leads you on a clearer path with a dedicated infographic analysis.

Amundi Research & Investment Insights Unit

Image Brexit

Image Brexit

26.09.2019 - Investment Talks

Brexit: extension of the deadline is likely, but the final outcome remains uncertain

Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline). This week, the UK Supreme Court judged “unlawful” the advice to susped the legislature given by Boris Johnson to the Queen. These events strengthen our view that another extension of the Brexit deadline is the most likely scenario.

Laurent CROSNIER, Kasper ELMGREEN, Tristan PERRIER

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