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20.05.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Cosimo MARASCIULO, Annalisa USARDI

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17.04.2020 - Investment Talks

Coronavirus crisis: impacts and implications for emerging markets

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV, Alessia BERARDI, Abbas AMELI-RENANI

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10.04.2020 - Investment Talks

Playing the possible sequence of market normalization gradually and selectively

As the Covid-19 virus spreads, investors can assess the potential sequence of market opportunities that will emerge from the crisis. The perceived features of the cycle of the coronavirus and the effectiveness measures taken locally to contain it are starting to drive allocations. A new market theme of Covid-19 de-synchronisation is emerging, a typical example being the long Asia.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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08.04.2020 - Investment Talks

A lot of bad news already priced in US assets: a gradual approach to exploit market dislocations

US in the pandemic crisis: The US economy has entered a recession, induced by the social distancing and quarantining measures introduced to tackle the pandemic crisis. To monitor how deep the recession will be, we use both traditional macroeconomic data (eg, weekly retail sales, jobless claims) and big data (e.g., dining out, travel and box office sales, travel numbers and google searches for ‘recession’ and unemployment statistics).

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

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01.04.2020 - Investment Talks

Euro Investment Grade credit reacts to the ECB’s bazooka: selective opportunities

Covid-19 is expected to severely damage the European economy in the coming quarters. The answer at the European level to this disruption has been strong on the monetary policy side, with the implementation of the temporary Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme of €750bn and targeted longer-term refinancing operations, and at the single country level, with targeted fiscal measures.

Eric BRARD, Monica DEFEND

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25.03.2020 - Investment Talks

In search of the bottom in the Covid-19 crisis

In this unprecedented time of high uncertainty from a sanitary and economic perspective, the different drivers at play are moving in different directions. These forces make the exercise of GDP forecasting quite tricky and not particularly helpful for the time being.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

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19.03.2020 - Investment Talks

Policy action at the next level, but markets still in search of a ‘real’ catalyst

Where we stand in the crisis and what to watch: Investors have moved from underestimating the severity of the crisis (buoyant markets) to a full global escalation (with the US joining emergency measures) that has led to market disruption and over-reaction.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER, Monica DEFEND

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16.03.2020 - Investment Talks

US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action. Fed moves to ease financial stress

Uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and duration of the global health crisis is driving volatility and testing liquidity across the world’s financial markets.

Christine TODD, Marco PIRONDINI, Paresh UPADHYAYA

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13.03.2020 - Investment Talks

ECB meeting: now, fiscal policy has to play its part

At its meeting on 12 March, the ECB disappointed market expectations by not cutting rates in the wake of the coronavirus spread.

Monica DEFEND, Valentine AINOUZ, Didier BOROWSKI

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