In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010. In 2020, we think the 10-year Treasury may trade in a similar range, with additional volatility arising from many of the same factors that drove volatility in 2019. We don’t expect the benchmark bond to exhibit a particular bias towards going higher or lower, assuming certain outlier scenarios are avoided. The current cyclical slowdown phase calls for caution, but investors may also want to prepare for a U-turn if and when earnings and economic growth reaccelerates. A macro environment marked bystabilising growth and a patient but supportive Federal Reserve should be positive for risk assets in general.
Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD, Marco PIRONDINI