Investment Talks / Publications / Research Center

29.07.2020 - Investment Talks

Challenges and opportunities in US Commercial Real Estate

Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting different sectors of the US commercial real estate market, and driving major short- and long-term trends that have consequences for investors. Within major subsectors of US commercial real estate, we are negative on the outlook for retail and senior housing sectors, cautious on office space, and positive on the industrial sector.

Andrew SCHIAPPA, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

22.07.2020 - Investment Talks

EU agreement: a powerful answer that can lift further EU assets and ESG investing

The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history to mobile a comprehensive package of €1 824 bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument –is a significant achievement and a net positive in the short term for EU assets.

Didier BOROWSKI, Eric BRARD, Kasper ELMGREEN, Alban de FAY, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE

15.07.2020 - Investment Talks

Why USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors

US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging for Euro-based investors is much lower than in the recent past. Furthermore, we expect this cost will remain low.

Kevin CHOY, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

23.06.2020 - Investment Talks

Biden’s election momentum and financial markets

Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election. The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Christine TODD, Craig STERLING

20.05.2020 - Investment Talks

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.

Matteo GERMANO, Sergio BERTONCINI, Cosimo MARASCIULO, Annalisa USARDI

17.04.2020 - Investment Talks

Coronavirus crisis: impacts and implications for emerging markets

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries.

Yerlan SYZDYKOV, Alessia BERARDI, Abbas AMELI-RENANI

10.04.2020 - Investment Talks

Playing the possible sequence of market normalization gradually and selectively

As the Covid-19 virus spreads, investors can assess the potential sequence of market opportunities that will emerge from the crisis. The perceived features of the cycle of the coronavirus and the effectiveness measures taken locally to contain it are starting to drive allocations. A new market theme of Covid-19 de-synchronisation is emerging, a typical example being the long Asia.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

08.04.2020 - Investment Talks

A lot of bad news already priced in US assets: a gradual approach to exploit market dislocations

US in the pandemic crisis: The US economy has entered a recession, induced by the social distancing and quarantining measures introduced to tackle the pandemic crisis. To monitor how deep the recession will be, we use both traditional macroeconomic data (eg, weekly retail sales, jobless claims) and big data (e.g., dining out, travel and box office sales, travel numbers and google searches for ‘recession’ and unemployment statistics).

Kenneth J. TAUBES, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD, Paresh UPADHYAYA

01.04.2020 - Investment Talks

Euro Investment Grade credit reacts to the ECB’s bazooka: selective opportunities

Covid-19 is expected to severely damage the European economy in the coming quarters. The answer at the European level to this disruption has been strong on the monetary policy side, with the implementation of the temporary Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme of €750bn and targeted longer-term refinancing operations, and at the single country level, with targeted fiscal measures.

Eric BRARD, Monica DEFEND

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