the articles & research center news
Tristan PERRIER, Hervé BOIRAL, Diego FRANZIN, Isabelle VIC-PHILIPPE
Are markets legitimately fearful? Last summer, the engine went out of whack. The financial markets have been gloomy, as everything has a pessimistic interpretation. How did we come to this? Do we have to significantly revise our economic and financial outlooks?
Philippe ITHURBIDE, Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER, Eric BRARD, Romain BOSCHER, Loïc BECUE, Raphaël SOBOTKA
Philippe ITHURBIDE, Didier BOROWSKI, Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER
Global Head of Research
Russia has relatively strong fundamentals (structural surplus in its current account, sound public finances, and high foreign exchange reserves). Nevertheless, strong inflationary pressure (related to the depreciation of the rouble and the drop in oil prices) and political tension stemming from the Russia- Ukraine conflict have led to a very rapid deterioration in the economic outlook and a heavy strain on the strength of its fundamentals.
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
In this article, tests for globalization and contagion are separated using an ex ante definition of crises, and contagion tests are neutralized with respect to globalization effects. A large database is constructed to study the stability of correlation matrices for four asset classes: equities, government bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, and high-yield corporate bonds, in four geographical zones. Overall, the results confirm the instability of correlations and point to a combination of globalization and flight to quality, while emphasizing that contagion on the equity markets appears as an artifact due to globalization.
Ariane CHAPELLE, Marie BRIERE, Ariane SZAFARZ