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2018-02-01- US Credti

2018-02-01- US Credti

02.02.2018 - Thematic Paper

US credit: don’t worry about the macro, focus on technicals

What should we expect for US credit in 2018, in a context where spreads and volatility are closing in on cycle lows?

Valentine AINOUZ

CFA, Credit Strategy

vignette

vignette

29.01.2018 - Thought of the Day

Technical factors could change the game for US credit

The risk for this asset class is a sudden change in the current yield environment – result of a surprise rise in inflation. In this scenario, the yield on US IG bonds would be less attractive.

Valentine AINOUZ

CFA, Credit Strategy

Cross Asset 2018-01 - Slider

Cross Asset 2018-01 - Slider

09.01.2018 - Monthly Cross Asset

CSPP leading the late phase of ECB QE

The ECB has already started “tapering” less corporate purchases than other programmes since April 2017, the month which saw the reduction from €80bn to €60bn of monthly purchases. Recently, President Draghi was not the only member of the ECB Governing Council noting that in 2018 the “ECB will continue buying sizeable quantities of corporate bonds in the programme”.

Sergio BERTONCINI

Credit Strategy

2017-07-08-Article-6

2017-07-08-Article-6

24.07.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

CSPP in tapering times: what to expect in H2 2017 and for 2018?

EUR corporate bond valuations have stabilised at high levels. Significantly, this asset class received direct support from the ECB through its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). In this article, we look at the impact the tapering of this programme will have on the market.

Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI

High yield euro

High yield euro

09.05.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

Euro HY: an essential asset class in a low-rate environment

HY Euro's performance in recent months has been remarkable. The HY Euro Index tightened by 157bp in 2016 ans 48bp since the start of 2017. So why is it still a good idea to take a position on HY Euro ?

Valentine AINOUZ, Marina COHEN

2017.04 - US corporate valuations and the link with bond yields

2017.04 - US corporate valuations and the link with bond yields

07.04.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

US corporate valuations and the link with bond yields

US credit markets have delivered a strong performance since mid-February 2016: for example, HY spreads tightened massively, on average from a peak close to 900 b.p. to a low of 355 b.p. one year later, while now spreads

Sergio BERTONCINI

Credit Strategy

2017-03 euro corporate bonds

2017-03 euro corporate bonds

16.03.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

EUR corporate bonds: a cross-check on valuations

EUR corporate bonds continue to track the firming momentum of macro and micro trends, and spreads have tracked the fall in equity implied volatility to lower levels. Credit markets, therefore, recently de-coupled from sovereign debt, which is being negatively impacted by political uncertainties. After such an outperformance we address the valuation issue, with specific reference to the usual drivers and the yield curve segments.

Valentine AINOUZ, Sergio BERTONCINI

2017-02-HY DEFAULT RATES 2016 REVIEW AND 2017 OUTLOOK

2017-02-HY DEFAULT RATES 2016 REVIEW AND 2017 OUTLOOK

16.02.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

HY default rates: 2016 review and 2017 outlook

The end of US HY “mini” default cycle (almost completely commodity-driven) is approaching. Our regressions point to a significant fall in US default rates from the 6% area to 3.7% by December. No material deviation is expected from the still-benign European default cycle, which is likely to remain stable and low by historical standards in 2017, as well.

Sergio BERTONCINI

Credit Strategy

2017-02-D trump victory

2017-02-D trump victory

16.02.2017 - Monthly Cross Asset

What should your position on the credit markets be in the wake of Trump?

2016 was a remarkable year for credit markets. Donald Trump’s victory was greeted very favourably by credit markets, and changed the tone somewhat. In this new environment, what should your position on the credit markets be?

Valentine AINOUZ

CFA, Credit Strategy

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