Kenneth J. MONAGHAN, Andrew FELTUS, Sergio BERTONCINI, Laura FIOROT
the articles & research center news
Claudia BERTINO, Laura FIOROT, Eric BRARD
The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on $200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation, which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.
Vincent MORTIER, Didier BOROWSKI, Monica DEFEND
Global Head of Research
US economy: we expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2019 and to gradually converge to its long-term growth rate of around 2% in 2020 as the boost provided by fiscal expansion in 2018 will gradually lose steam.
Didier BOROWSKI, Annalisa USARDI, Valentine AINOUZ, Kenneth J. TAUBES
PhD, Senior Economist
Mario Draghi’s 27 June speech (“Accompanying the economic recovery”) startled market participants awake from their day-dreams about their upcoming summer vacations. The 10-year Bund yield surged by 20bp on the week to 0.46% and the EUR/USD gained 2% to 1.14, a more than one-year high.
Bastien Drut & Valentine Ainouz
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
Again in 2016, the central banks of the developed countries loosened their monetary policies just a bit more: except for the Fed and the Bank of Canada, the central banks of all the other G-10 countries all loosened their monetary policies, either by lowering key interest rates or by inflating their balance sheets.
Valentine AINOUZ, Karine HERVE, Bastien DRUT, Mo JI