the articles & research center news
US economy: we expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2019 and to gradually converge to its long-term growth rate of around 2% in 2020 as the boost provided by fiscal expansion in 2018 will gradually lose steam.
Didier BOROWSKI, Annalisa USARDI, Valentine AINOUZ, Kenneth J. TAUBES
PhD, Senior Economist
Mario Draghi’s 27 June speech (“Accompanying the economic recovery”) startled market participants awake from their day-dreams about their upcoming summer vacations. The 10-year Bund yield surged by 20bp on the week to 0.46% and the EUR/USD gained 2% to 1.14, a more than one-year high.
Bastien Drut & Valentine Ainouz
Strategy and Economic Research at Amundi
Again in 2016, the central banks of the developed countries loosened their monetary policies just a bit more: except for the Fed and the Bank of Canada, the central banks of all the other G-10 countries all loosened their monetary policies, either by lowering key interest rates or by inflating their balance sheets.
Valentine AINOUZ, Karine HERVE, Bastien DRUT, Mo JI
The rebound from the financial crisis has been frustratingly slow. Real growth is only now, 8 years later, getting close to trend levels in the U.S. , Japan is struggling, growth in the U.K. has weakened, and China is no longer able to provide the offsetting boost that it did a few years ago.
Eric BRARD, Laurent CROSNIER, Thierry DARMON, Marie-Anne ALLIER, Denys DE CAMPIGNEULLES, Cédric MORISSEAU, Shinichiro ARIE CFA, Patrick GUIVARCH, Philippe JAUER, Daniel C. DEKTAR, Dan ADLER
The way that central banks operate has radically changed since the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The time when central banks had merely to set the key rate is now past. The widespread weakening of growth potential has driven key rates downward, nearly to zero in the case of most central banks of developed economies. Here, we examine the most common unconventionalmonetary policy measures taken in the past few years.
Fixed Income and FX Strategy
Central banks (CB) are now noting the limited effectiveness of their quantitative easing (QE) policies. The risks related to negative interest rates (destabilisation of the banking system, increase in household savings) are increasingly being taken into consideration. Recourse to “helicopter money” - a reference to the still-famous Milton Friedman parable – has returned to centre stage. What is helicopter money and how is it different from existing quantitative easing programmes? And how could it potentially be more effective?
Head of Macroeconomic Research