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Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

22.10.2019 - Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views - November 2019

CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

Image Italy

Image Italy

18.10.2019 - Thematic Paper

Italy: few ambitions from the new budget framework

On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

Annalisa USARDI

CFA, Senior Economist

Ibra Wane

Ibra Wane

14.10.2019 - Expert Talk

The Elizabeth Warren moment

E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary pollsand far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put herodds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.

Ibra WANE

Equity Strategy

Vignette 600x400

Vignette 600x400

14.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Liquidity dilemma needs a regulatory response

A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.

Pascal BLANQUE, Vincent MORTIER

US President impeachment

US President impeachment

11.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Trump impeachment is likely, but impact on financial markets would be short-lived

The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.

Paresh UPADHYAYA, Marco PIRONDINI, Christine TODD

Vignette

Vignette

10.10.2019 - Thought of the Day

September Eurozone PMIs signal a widening contraction in manufacturing and services

September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors.

Gregorio VANIN

Macroeconomic Research

Vignette risk factor

Vignette risk factor

04.10.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context and forecasts - October 2019

Risk factors, Macroeconomic context, Macroeconomic picture by area and Macro and Market forecasts.

Didier BOROWSKI

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Slider Cross Asset

Slider Cross Asset

04.10.2019 - Monthly Cross Asset

Central banks have confirmed the shift to a much more accommodative stance

In their September meetings, both the ECB and Fed confirmed their easing mode. The ECB delivered a full monetary policy package (pre-announced in previous months), combining conventional and unconventional tools, together with the introduction of new measures aimed at reducing the sideeffects of negative rates. The FOMC delivered its second rate cut and kept the easing bias while refraining from giving clues on forward guidance, on the back of the still supportive domestic economic picture and the mixed views emerging from the dots. For the first time, therefore, the Fed hinted at resuming the organic growth of its balance sheet: the objective will be to consistently calibrate reserves to the new level of rates, in order to keep optimal abundant liquidity levels, so as not to provide a further stimulus to the economy. In this piece, we focus on these very latest developments and on the monetary policy outlook.

Sergio BERTONCINI, Valentine AINOUZ

Brexit update

Brexit update

04.10.2019 - Investment Talks

Brexit Update - Moving towards the October 31st deadline

What are the different options expected and what potential impacts on the market can be foreseen? Amundi leads you on a clearer path with a dedicated infographic analysis.

Amundi Research & Investment Insights Unit

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